Ukraine, despite the ongoing conflict with Russia, is not ranked as the most dangerous country in the world, according to the 2024 Global Peace Index (GPI). That designation belongs to war-torn Afghanistan, marking a continued deterioration in global peacefulness, according to the Institute for Economics and Peace.
Afghanistan retains its position as the world’s least peaceful nation, a title it has held for several years. The GPI, which assesses 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, reveals a concerning trend: global peacefulness has deteriorated for the ninth consecutive year, with 65 countries improving and 97 deteriorating.
The Russia and Eurasia region experienced the largest decline in peacefulness, primarily due to the war in Ukraine. While Ukraine’s conflict has significantly impacted its own peacefulness, it’s the confluence of factors within Afghanistan—internal conflict, political instability, and terrorist activity—that cement its position at the bottom of the index.
The GPI utilizes 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators to compile its ranking, encompassing three major domains: the level of societal safety and security; the extent of ongoing domestic and international conflict; and the degree of militarization.
The ten least peaceful countries, according to the 2024 GPI, are Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Russia, Ukraine, Somalia, Sudan, and Central African Republic.
Several key trends are highlighted in the report. Armed conflict remains the primary driver of decreased global peacefulness. The number of conflicts fought globally has increased dramatically over the last decade, with the intensity of those conflicts also on the rise. Political instability and civil unrest are also significant factors, contributing to an increasingly polarized and volatile global environment.
Economic repercussions of violence are also a key consideration. The global economic impact of violence in 2023 amounted to $17.5 trillion, equivalent to 13 percent of global GDP. This underscores the significant economic burden that conflict and instability place on societies worldwide.
The report also notes a growing gap between the most and least peaceful countries, suggesting an increasing divergence in global security and stability.
Digging Deeper into the Global Peace Index Methodology
The Global Peace Index (GPI), published annually by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), provides a comprehensive analysis of global peacefulness, ranking 163 independent states and territories, covering 99.7 percent of the world’s population. The index is not merely a subjective assessment but is meticulously constructed using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators, categorized into three main domains:
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Societal Safety and Security: This domain assesses the level of harmony or discord within a nation. Key indicators include:
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Level of perceived criminality in society: This reflects public perception of crime rates and the overall sense of security in everyday life. Higher perceived criminality indicates a less peaceful society.
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Number of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) as a percentage of the population: High numbers of refugees and IDPs point to internal conflicts, human rights violations, or environmental disasters that force people to flee their homes, indicating a significant breakdown in societal peace.
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Political instability: This measures the risk of government overthrow or violent political transitions. Frequent political instability undermines confidence in the state and often leads to civil unrest and violence.
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Political Terror Scale: This assesses the level of political violence and repression, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and political imprisonment. A higher score indicates a more repressive and less peaceful environment.
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Homicide rate: This is a direct measure of violent crime and reflects the effectiveness of law enforcement and the prevalence of social unrest.
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Level of violent crime: This encompasses a range of violent offenses, including assault, robbery, and rape, providing a broad indicator of societal safety.
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Incarceration rate: While not always indicative of societal unrest, a high incarceration rate can reflect underlying social problems and a failure to address the root causes of crime.
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Access to small arms: The widespread availability of firearms can escalate conflicts and increase the likelihood of violence, contributing to a less peaceful society.
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Extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict: This domain focuses on the presence and intensity of conflicts within and between countries. Key indicators include:
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Number and duration of internal conflicts: This reflects the prevalence and persistence of armed conflicts within a country’s borders, often driven by ethnic, religious, or political divisions.
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Number of deaths from internal conflict: This is a direct measure of the human cost of internal conflicts and provides an indication of the severity of the violence.
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Number and duration of external conflicts: This assesses a country’s involvement in armed conflicts with other nations, reflecting its foreign policy and security environment.
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Number of deaths from external conflict: This measures the human cost of a country’s involvement in external conflicts, highlighting the impact of war on its population.
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Relations with neighboring countries: Positive relations with neighbors are crucial for regional stability and peaceful coexistence. Hostile relations increase the risk of conflict and instability.
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Level of organized conflict (internal): This assesses the scale and sophistication of armed groups operating within a country, reflecting the degree of internal unrest and the capacity for violence.
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Intensity of organized internal conflict: This measures the severity of internal conflicts, taking into account factors such as the types of weapons used, the level of civilian involvement, and the extent of displacement.
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Degree of Militarization: This domain examines the resources and infrastructure a nation dedicates to military activities. Key indicators include:
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Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP: This reflects the proportion of a country’s economic resources allocated to military spending, indicating its commitment to defense and security.
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Number of armed services personnel per 100,000 people: This measures the size of a country’s military relative to its population, indicating its military strength and potential for conflict.
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Volume of transfers of major conventional weapons as recipient (imports): This reflects a country’s reliance on imported weapons, potentially indicating a need to bolster its military capabilities in response to perceived threats.
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Volume of transfers of major conventional weapons as supplier (exports): This reflects a country’s role as a weapons exporter, potentially contributing to instability in other regions.
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Financial contribution to UN peacekeeping missions: This indicates a country’s commitment to international peace and security through support for peacekeeping operations.
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Nuclear and heavy weapons capabilities: The possession of nuclear or heavy weapons can be a deterrent but also increases the risk of escalation in conflicts.
The IEP collects data from a wide range of reputable sources, including international organizations, government agencies, academic institutions, and non-governmental organizations. These sources are carefully vetted to ensure data accuracy and reliability. The data is then normalized and weighted to produce a comprehensive score for each country, which is used to determine its ranking in the Global Peace Index.
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The Deteriorating Global Peace Landscape
The GPI consistently shows a long-term trend of declining global peacefulness. This deterioration is not uniform across all regions; some areas have seen improvements, but the overall picture is one of increasing instability and violence. Several factors contribute to this trend:
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Rise in Armed Conflicts: The number of armed conflicts worldwide has risen significantly in recent years. These conflicts are often protracted, involving multiple actors and resulting in widespread human suffering and displacement. The increasing complexity of these conflicts makes them more difficult to resolve.
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Political Instability and Polarization: Political instability is on the rise in many countries, driven by factors such as economic inequality, social divisions, and declining trust in government. This instability often leads to civil unrest, protests, and even violent conflict. Political polarization further exacerbates these tensions, making it more difficult to find common ground and address pressing social and economic challenges.
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Climate Change and Resource Scarcity: Climate change is exacerbating existing tensions and creating new sources of conflict. Resource scarcity, such as water and food shortages, can lead to competition and conflict, particularly in already fragile regions. Climate-induced migration can also put strain on resources and infrastructure, leading to social unrest.
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Rise of Extremism and Terrorism: Extremist ideologies continue to spread, fueling violence and instability in many parts of the world. Terrorist groups exploit political instability and social grievances to recruit members and carry out attacks. The spread of online radicalization makes it more difficult to counter extremist narratives.
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Weakening of International Institutions: The rise of nationalism and populism has led to a weakening of international institutions and a decline in multilateral cooperation. This makes it more difficult to address global challenges such as climate change, pandemics, and armed conflict.
Regional Analysis of Peacefulness
While the GPI provides a global overview of peacefulness, it also highlights significant regional differences.
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Europe: Europe remains the most peaceful region in the world, although it has experienced a slight decline in peacefulness in recent years due to the war in Ukraine. Most European countries enjoy high levels of social and political stability, strong institutions, and low levels of violence.
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North America: North America is generally peaceful, but the United States has experienced a significant decline in peacefulness in recent years due to political polarization, social unrest, and high levels of gun violence. Canada remains a relatively peaceful country.
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Asia-Pacific: The Asia-Pacific region is diverse, with some countries experiencing high levels of peacefulness while others are plagued by conflict and instability. Countries like New Zealand and Singapore are among the most peaceful in the world, while Afghanistan remains the least peaceful.
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Latin America and the Caribbean: Latin America and the Caribbean is a region with high levels of violence, particularly related to organized crime and drug trafficking. Many countries in the region also suffer from political instability and corruption.
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Middle East and North Africa: The Middle East and North Africa is the least peaceful region in the world, characterized by ongoing conflicts, political instability, and high levels of terrorism. Countries like Syria, Yemen, and Libya have been ravaged by war for years.
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Sub-Saharan Africa: Sub-Saharan Africa is a region with diverse levels of peacefulness. Some countries, like Mauritius and Botswana, are relatively peaceful, while others, like South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, are plagued by conflict and instability. Many countries in the region face challenges related to poverty, inequality, and climate change.
The Economic Cost of Violence
The GPI also highlights the significant economic impact of violence. The global economic cost of violence in 2023 was estimated at $17.5 trillion, equivalent to 13 percent of global GDP. This figure includes the costs associated with conflict, crime, and terrorism, as well as the indirect costs of violence, such as lost productivity and reduced investment.
The economic cost of violence can have a devastating impact on countries, diverting resources away from essential services such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure. Violence can also undermine economic growth, discourage investment, and disrupt trade.
Investing in peacebuilding and conflict prevention is essential for reducing the economic cost of violence. This includes addressing the root causes of conflict, promoting good governance, and strengthening institutions.
Implications and Recommendations
The Global Peace Index provides valuable insights into the state of global peacefulness and the factors that contribute to conflict and instability. The report highlights the urgent need for concerted efforts to address the root causes of conflict, promote good governance, and strengthen institutions.
Some key recommendations for improving global peacefulness include:
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Investing in peacebuilding and conflict prevention: This includes providing support for mediation and dialogue initiatives, promoting reconciliation, and strengthening local peacebuilding capacity.
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Addressing the root causes of conflict: This includes tackling poverty, inequality, and social exclusion, promoting good governance, and ensuring access to education and healthcare.
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Strengthening international institutions: This includes supporting the United Nations and other multilateral organizations, promoting international law, and strengthening mechanisms for conflict resolution.
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Promoting human rights and the rule of law: This includes ensuring respect for human rights, protecting civil liberties, and strengthening the independence of the judiciary.
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Combating climate change: This includes reducing greenhouse gas emissions, investing in renewable energy, and adapting to the impacts of climate change.
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Countering extremism and terrorism: This includes addressing the underlying causes of extremism, countering extremist narratives, and disrupting terrorist networks.
By taking these steps, we can create a more peaceful and prosperous world for all. The GPI serves as a critical tool for policymakers, researchers, and civil society organizations working to promote peace and security. It provides a framework for understanding the complex challenges facing the world today and for developing effective strategies for building a more peaceful future.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
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Why is Afghanistan ranked as the least peaceful country in the world? Afghanistan faces a complex web of challenges, including ongoing internal conflicts involving various armed groups, persistent political instability, a struggling economy, and the continued presence of terrorist organizations. As the yahoo news source confirms, “Afghanistan remains the least peaceful country in the world.” The culmination of these factors results in a significantly low score on the Global Peace Index.
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How does the Global Peace Index (GPI) measure peacefulness? The GPI uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators, grouped into three major domains: the level of societal safety and security (e.g., homicide rates, political terror scale), the extent of ongoing domestic and international conflict (e.g., number of internal conflicts, deaths from external conflict), and the degree of militarization (e.g., military expenditure as a percentage of GDP, number of armed services personnel). These indicators are weighted to provide a comprehensive assessment of each country’s peacefulness.
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What are the key factors contributing to the global decline in peacefulness? According to the news report and the Global Peace Index, armed conflicts are a primary driver of decreased global peacefulness. Political instability, the rise of extremism, and the economic repercussions of violence also significantly contribute to the deterioration. The yahoo news source explains, “Armed conflict remains the primary driver of decreased global peacefulness.”
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How has the conflict in Ukraine affected the Global Peace Index? The conflict in Ukraine has had a significant negative impact on global peacefulness, particularly in the Russia and Eurasia region. While Ukraine itself is not ranked as the least peaceful country, the conflict has contributed to a substantial decline in its own peacefulness score and has destabilized the region. The yahoo news source clarifies the impact as “The Russia and Eurasia region experienced the largest decline in peacefulness, primarily due to the war in Ukraine.”
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What is the economic impact of violence on the global economy? The global economic impact of violence in 2023 amounted to $17.5 trillion, equivalent to 13 percent of global GDP. This includes the direct costs of conflict, crime, and terrorism, as well as indirect costs such as lost productivity, reduced investment, and increased security spending. As reported by yahoo news, this substantial economic burden highlights the importance of investing in peacebuilding and conflict prevention.
